Sony Dwi Kuncoro (@3.0) vs Kodai Naraoka (@1.33)
11-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Kodai Naraoka will win

Sony Dwi Kuncoro – Kodai Naraoka Match Prediction | 11-09-2019 09:40

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But Im not a statistician and frankly, to conclude that mens singles simply shows the tiniest blip among five tiny blips just wouldnt be any fun! Outside the scope here is the notion of statistical significance. True, this analysis does stoop to comparing 0 mens singles titles to 6 mens doubles Superseries titles and that may sound a whole lot like quibbling. After all, those 6 doubles titles were all won by exactly 2 teenagers and each discipline has had 139 champions since the 2007 Malaysia Open.

Where the boys are: Why is mens singles the exception to the prodigy pattern?

This is certainly a possibility. 2007 had the lowest average age for Superseries singles winners at 24.5 years. Since 2009, the average has fluctuated between 26 and 28. True, players like Fung Permadi (pictured right) and Poul-Erik Hoyer played to the age Lee Chong Wei is now (see the table below) but once again, we have to look at the incredible dominance by Lee and Lin Dan, neither of whom have a retirement yet in sight.

Actually, if you look at those 15 teenagers who did manage to reach mens singles finals in Grand Prix or Grand Prix Gold events, only one has managed to grab his first Superseries title and World Championship for that matter, since were talking about Viktor Axelsen. Some of those teen finals are quite recent like Kantaphon Wangcharoens silver at the 2017 Thailand Masters and there also are some recent 20th birthdays such as those of Thailand Open runner-up Jonatan Christie and 2014 Indonesia Masters finalist Firman Abdul Kholik. But 10 of them were prior to 2015, and even the first teen Grand Prix mens singles finalist 2009 New Zealand Open runner-up Wong Wing Ki is still in the hunt for his first Superseries title.

If we count singles finalists rather than winners then teenaged boys have done a little better but we still find that out of 18 finalists at Grand Prix level or above, no one but Viktor Axelsen (pictured), at the 2012 French Open, did it at a Superseries. Most of the other disciplines have seen that many teen finalists, or many more, in the Superseries alone. Even if you cast the net wider and include everything from Grand Prix up to the Olympics and World Championships,[] you find that of 159 titles won by teens in all 5 disciplines, mens singles account for just 3, all of them Grand Prix titles.

Players like LCW and LD at their old age wont stand a chance against younger players, and we could observe that in fact there were very few players still active at the age of more than 35 years. Back then, when the 15 point system (no rally point!), it required an incredible physical endurance. IMHO, in the 21 rally point system, skill and experience play a more important role in the game. Its strange that you did not take into account the different scoring system.

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Christie just turned 20 himself, a couple of weeks after winning the SEA Games gold and a couple of days before reaching his first Superseries final. Back in 2014, we did a poll on this very topic wherein we asked Badzine readers who they thought would be the next teen to title. At the time, Viktor Axelsen had just turned 20, our readers chose Jonatan Christie (pictured right), who had 3 more teen years to come into his own, and we closed it down as soon as Wang Tzu Wei won a Grand Prix title that spring.